Understanding the “Bradley Effect” Scare in US Presidential Elections

By Innocent Chia

For international readers and others following the 2008 American Presidential election via audio visual media, mention of the Bradley Effect as having potential to torpedo an Obama presidency has been paramount. What is the Bradley Effect? How does Sen. Obama’s campaign overcome it, whether it be fact or myth?

According to the free encyclopedia, Wikipedia, The Bradley Effect “is a proposed explanation for a discrepancy between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in American political campaigns when a white candidate (Sen. John McCain) and a non-white candidate (Sen. Barack Obama) run against each other”. In other words, the supposition is that voters are not always forthright in their answers to pollsters when they plan to vote for a white candidate over their black rival in elections opposing a Caucasian to a non-Caucasian.

Tom Bradley, after whom the Bradley Effect is named, was an African-American and Mayor of Los Angeles who was running to become Governor of California in 1982. He lost the election in spite holding what some considered a substantial lead in the polls over his opponent, George Deukmejian. Ever since, there have been similar cases where white candidates have either come from behind to beat their non-white opponents, or annihilated leads to extremely contentious margins at the end of the ballot count. A couple of such leads that evaporated to a razor-thin victory include that of Harold Washington in 1983. The late Chicago Mayor won the mayoral election by a thin margin after polling as a decisive victor. In 1989, Douglas Wilder, another African –American, held a nine-point lead on the eve of Virginia's gubernatorial election. By the end of the count he won by less than one percentage point.

But there is no unanimous verdict on the Bradley Effect. Some analysts argue the credence given to the Bradley theory and say that if at all it ever existed, its effectiveness has been diluted by changing times and culture. More so, V. Lance Tarrance Jr, who was pollster for Bradley’s opponent, George Deukmejian, submits that the Bradley effect was the result of bad data. According to Tarrance, the poll declaring Bradley a prohibitive favorite ignored Deukmejian’s advantages among absentee and early voters. Whether one elects to believe Tarrance or not, there is some degree of comprehensive apprehension of the Bradley Effect, or some perception of it, especially with Sen. Obama losing to Sen. Clinton at the New Hampshire Democratic primaries.

Hence, at one of his first campaign stops in New Hampshire, following the last Presidential debate against Sen. McCain and moderated by Bob Scheiffer of CBS News, Sen. Obama cautioned supporters to not relent in their efforts. He specifically asked supporters not to “get corky” and rest on their laurels. Not getting corky or overly confident is definitely the first step at answering the question: How does a campaign overcome the Bradley Effect?
Another practical measure is to continue reaching out to new voters and getting them registered until the last possible day of registration. It is what the campaign has done the most in the last 20 months of campaigning. They have been adept at it and need no schooling.

However, the challenge for every campaign, and historically the Democratic Party than their Republican counterparts, has been that of getting out the vote. In all instances where the Bradley Effect has been a factor, whether perceived or not, the victim (Black) has won or lost depending or how many more supporters they succeeded in getting out to the booths. A fact of the Bradley Effect is that the polling numbers of the non-Caucasian candidate stayed the same while that of the White opponent increased to the top and beyond that of their Black rival. The supposition, therefore, is that for any likely candidate running against the Bradley Effect, securing a polling margin above 51 percent could be the panacea for victory.  Of course, supporters have to come out in numbers large enough to out-do their opponent and secure victory for their candidate. 

The fact of the matter is that if there is a Bradley Effect, then there are its beneficiaries who are on bended knee praying for it. No one on Sen. McCain’s camp will come out and tell the media that they are hoping for a Bradley Effect to knock down their rival, thus ushering in their candidate into the White House. They will not. What they will do is what they have done best so far: Question who Sen. Barack Obama is and fill in the blanks in the minds of their blank supporters and Independents that are yet to make up their minds. So far, some of Sen. Mccain’s campaign methods have included scare tactics that define Sen. Obama as one that “pals around with terrorists”.

An intended consequence could be the dissuasion of some iffy-Obama supporters, thus causing them to stay at home. Such an action would take Sen. McCain halfway to his objective of having more of his supporters turn out to vote. It is generally known that older voters, who traditionally support the Republican platform, need less prodding to go vote. In fact, they have less on their schedules and minds than the younger voters. Think of Church on Sunday? How many younger people do you meet in Church who go there of their own freewill? You can argue that it is because they hang out late into night on Saturday and are too tired for the Lord’s house. Conversely, cynics would say the older folk look forward to Sunday service because it is an outing opportunity.

At the end of the day, the fact of the matter is that each campaign will go for whatever jugular that works for them. Sen. McCain and his campaign will scare those who are in doubt of Sen. Obama. Like a Church that desires to increase its membership by growing the youth population, Sen. Obama and his campaign must work on how to get out the vote on November 4th. Part of the way out will include staying focused on the message of Change in the face of difficult times and suggesting solutions that could potentially alleviate what looks like impending doom. It will seal the deal for him and lay the Bradley Effect to rest.

Comments

[Ndim Bernard Ngouche]

It shall be the most painful and most disastrious for the American people if they for any reason cast their votes based on colour. Today the world needs competence and persons of intergrity to rule rather than bigots whose only qualification is the pigmentation of their skin. I do sincerely pray that Americans should move above greed and blind sentiment so as to give America a new departure.The Bradley effect if at all should come into play shall be coming against a back drop of changes and mental growth that have over come its ripples.Americans no matter their colour remain Americans and therefore should be given equal chances to forge ahead and be voted into any office of the land.Americans should understand that the world is watching at them and praying that they should not falter.
Ndim Bernard Ngouche

[votetheday.com]

Is it possible, that Obama's lead could evaporate on election day because of Bradley-Wilder effect? Or nowadays Americans are significantly less reluctant to vote for an African-American? Vote here - http://www.votetheday.com/america/secret-racism-will-subvert-obamas-advantage-333

[I.C TAWAH]

Personally, i think all Americans should come out in their numbers,keeping aside the Bradley factor and vote for Sen Obama on the 04th of Nov. to bring total peace in the World.Americans,lets unit to fight racism by voting for the right person into the white house.